Dot Plot Shows 3 Hikes In 2018: Fade The Consensus

The Fed hiked 1/4 point with no unexpected discussion. A Dot plot shows Fed participants believe 3 more hikes are coming.

The full text if the FOMC Statement for December shows the committee unanimously approved a 1/4 percentage point increase in the Fed Funds rate to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%.

Interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.50 percent, effective December 14, 2017.

The statement contained the usual meaningless blather about employment, price stability, and inflation that has been running below target.

The Dot Plot, a survey of interest rate expectations, shows an expectation the Fed will hike to a range of 2.00% to 2.25% in 2018.

I suggest fading the consensus. The yield curve is already close to flat, and with three more hikes it would likely invert. We are closer to the end of these rate hikes than the beginning.

FOMC sees no AI jobs displacement in their forecasts. Or a recession. Ever. pic.twitter.com/ybGnxcco2W

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) December 13, 2017

Cartoon of the Day

(Janet’s last meeting) pic.twitter.com/4qyzApgE8L

— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) December 13, 2017

The 3% and above predictions in the years ahead are a pipe dream. The Trump tax cuts, if they happen, will not spur growth.

The next major move in rates is lower.