Durable Goods New Orders Improved In January 2016

The headlines say the durable goods new orders improved. The three month rolling average improved this month and now is slightly in expansion.

Econintersect Analysis:

unadjusted new orders growth accelerated 1.8 % (after decelerating an upwardly revised -3.5 % the previous month) month-over-month , and is up 0.6 % year-over-year.

the three month rolling average for unadjusted new orders accelerated 0.6 % month-over-month, and up 0.6 % year-over-year.

Year-over-Year Change of 3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)

Inflation adjusted but otherwise unadjusted new orders are up 0.1 % year-over-year.

The Federal Reserve’s Durable Goods Industrial Production Index (seasonally adjusted) growth accelerating 0.5 % month-over-month, up 0.8 % year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision – and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] – three month trend is decelerating, and has been decelerating for a year..

Comparing Seasonally Adjusted Durable Goods Shipments (blue line) to Industrial Production Durable Goods (red line)

unadjusted backlog (unfilled orders) growth accelerated 0.3 % month-over-month, down 1.7 % year-over-year.

according to the seasonally adjusted data, most of the data was ok – but the main reason for all the growth is civilian aircraft.

note this is labelled as an advance report – however, backward revisions historically are relatively slight.

Census Headlines:

new orders up 4.9 % month-over-month.

backlog (unfilled orders) increased 0.51 % month-over-month.

the market expected (from Bloomberg):

Consensus Range Consensus Actual New Orders – M/M change 0.2 % to 5.3 % +2.0 % +4.9 % Ex-transportation – M/M -1.2 % to 1.5 % +0.0 % +0.8 %