E A Relentless Barrage Of Soft Data-points

A relentless barrage of soft data-points – should be the highlight of forecasts for next year, not just the never-ending debate about whether they justify ‘cover’ for the Fed to firm rates. The ISM was the worst number since 2009; helping of course rally the rate-curve belly if you will. What that says ‘in theory’ supports a ‘pass’ on rate moves, and a more ‘dovish’ posture by the Fed. Some see that in a ‘bullish’ frame of reference, but that’s last year’s game and this is something to be concerned about for reasons beyond what the Fed does or again defers. The ISM number if not out-of-sync with other data; while final demand appears to be firm (to wit: auto-sales, but that is because of low rates, and presumably with long-lease or purchase terms, pulls from future demand).

The economy is ‘not dying’; although it’s struggling in manufacturing overall for sure. The Atlanta ‘Now’ Fed data has been lowered again; and we actually are not sour about ‘slow growth’, as that’s the best climate for the long-term. But we have markets and industries (especially commodities and energy) structured on a faster pace of recovery (it’s not just slack Chinese demand) and expectations of higher ‘CapEx.  Combating that is today’s ‘Business Roundtable’ CEO survey; which might just be the most important release of the week. Why? Because ‘CEO Confidence’in fact imploded; with regard to this Quarter and at least early 2016. That’s very significant, as one might presume ‘Capital Expenditures’ and hiring won’t really take-off in an environment of low executive confidence. 

 One might conclude from that a presumption about ‘more’ buybacks in 2016; a prospect for some of course. But the downside of that (especially as investors increasingly recognize many executives engaged in insider-selling during what was perceived to be rising demand during buybacks which elevated earnings, or masked failure of top-line and bottom-line results that otherwise existed. It’s essentially (where a company didn’t have really great profitability) a ‘default’ of growing a business, and might be seen as disadvantageous to shareholders; the opposite of what most presumed short-term as share price often firmed. I could be cynical and ponder how any CEO of a firm, struggling in a bifurcated economy, could have a positive outlook when nothing has been done to ‘really’ grapple with the needed manufacturing renaissance, and as each passing year sees more people having to enroll in healthcare costing more than estimates (I doubt that surprised many, as some plans were almost bait and switch after the first year), which sort of sucks every last dollar they out of their pockets, leaving fewer to possibly spend on retail stuff mostly from China; or to be returned after the holidays. Yes, cynical, but probably not an unrealistic middle-class take.