E Market Briefing For Monday, February 6

Superb resilience, despite persisting protests or other socially disruptive efforts, encouraging outrage or even political upheaval, is a testament to something I observed in the week’s earlier trading. That was the failure of sellers to gain any significant toehold, even with the backdrop as it was, and even given geopolitical issues creeping in also (which may actually helped a bit because of firming-up oil despite an increase in the active ‘rig’ count).

My technical analysis point was ‘respect’. Respect for a demonstrated ability of the breakout to consolidate only slightly; which basically (from a technical analysis perspective alone) in my view required being aware of the litany of disconnects or challenges to the bullish case; but not pulling the plug on the market; certainly not at all venturing to the short-side of the market, which we have argued against consistently from the moment Donald Trump won. 

Our case was that ‘all declines would be false & abortive’; not the rallies. It’s the opposite of our 2016 pre-Election approach, almost similar to a stance I took, that few others did, from 2002’s post-crash lows until 2007. That was a time when others fought the market while I was totally bullish (aside normal pullbacks); calling ‘all declines to be within the context of overall uptrend’.
 

There are too many variables to suggest that will be the case this year; and that’s on top of the market being fairly high even before the election. So we remain ‘on-alert’ for indications that a correction is imminent; but have said in each day’s comments, simply ‘not yet’, with respect to anything significant disrupting this stable-to-higher pattern.
 

In sum 

The quite long weekend video delves into the overview; hence we’ll abbreviate comments here. The outlined activity is as we’ve expected and I think we’ll do a bit more yet.