E Market Briefing For Monday, July 24

Keeping a ‘bid’ under the market  is what traders are now focusing on; as expiration is out of the way and nobody knows how to weigh prospects for a healthcare bill being passed by the Senate in the week ahead. Given a slew of pressures now, we do think they will actually try getting it done.

Currency markets might continue to have an influence. The ECB gave a more dovish viewpoint than justified; so it seems that Draghi might not be too happy to see the strength in the Euro, which broke above lateral highs I have noted for awhile (along with concurrent Dollar Index weakness). There is a push to convince traders that Euro strength will enable a bid under bank stocks in the US and thus create a rotation helping the Averages. Perhaps. I think they’re just looking for a ‘bid’ under markets; not really liking the banks. 

Currency markets might continue to have an influence here. The ECB gave a more dovish viewpoint than justified; so it seems that Draghi might not be too happy to see the strength in the Euro, which broke above lateral highs I have noted for awhile (along with concurrent Dollar Index weakness). There is a push to convince traders that Euro strength will enable a bid under bank stocks in the US and thus create a rotation helping the averages. Perhaps. I think they’re just looking for a ‘bid’ under markets; not really liking the banks. 

Basically most stocks are trading well above normal multiples; or essentially almost all bullish alternatives built-in, at least for the short-term. The low VIX implies little volatility and more complacency ahead. Now, the week ahead is loaded with earnings reports, so you have a fair possibility that a series of good results help the market grind a bit higher (or try to) during the week. It may even be independent of whether there is healthcare progress or not. 
 

 
However, none of that should be surprising as everyone expects better Q2 results; and hears the ‘spin’ about synchronized global recovery. First that’s not necessarily where economics are at; but the perception. And as such it’s in the market, thus may be discounted. So if you get a bunch of ‘runups or bounces’ on earnings, that are then ‘sold-into’, it will be a sign of fatigue as well as a big yawn on earnings coming in ‘better’.