Growing concepts of market trading as fruitless are being heard again, and that is pleasing. The idea that passive investing will permanently be a part of the investment scene is not new; and we’ve had a majority of U.S. investors focus in growing core assets over time via mutual funds for many years; with typically little monitoring of what they actually hold.
The idea that active management will never return invites contrary calls of renewed risk, and in some ways that’s already been proven. How so? Just a gander at how managers engaged in ‘rotation’ for several months (back and forth between ‘perceived safe(r) harbor stocks’ like AT&T or IBM, just at the time FANG and other momentum stocks came under pressure; and the reverse, is indicative of a re-engagement of active asset handling.
The entire ‘class’ of managers advocating passive investing do so mostly in a desire to keep the game going; to attract money with an impression of consistent results without risks; and ignoring how many (especially hedge funds to a degree) have under-performed. More notably they ‘peddle’ what clearly is an advocacy of a ‘risk-on’ environment going forth from here.
Given an increasingly ‘hawkish’ prospect for monetary policy; we continue to strive for a realistic assessment of what is relevant to the market. That, most recently, including warning of the parabola surrounding Bitcoin hype, as well as what happens ‘if’ Congress includes the FIFO provision in final Tax Bill language. (It would tank the market almost immediately.) And if it’s omitted, you might still get selling as soon as trades can settle in 2018.
Bottom line: the Fed moved as expected (a Quarter Point); the GOP Tax Plan is starting to take shape, and the Corporate Tax cut ‘apparently’ will take place in 2018; not delayed until 2019; and that means a lot to stocks, as well as the majority of non-public businesses in the United States.
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