E Market Briefing For Tuesday, Sept. 13

Wall Street threw a lid on the semi-panic breakdown Friday; and that’s no surprise. It was our view that they wouldn’t let this go without a rebound; and they didn’t. That’s not a reassurance however, as although the market turn came before Brainard’s Fed speech, which the pundits quickly interpreted (rightfully if Yellen follows that guideline) as a sign of conditions not favorable for a rate hike.

The good news is that the market make lower lows first on Monday; and our weekend comments suggested moving out of more (presuming some already taken) of the Sept. S&P 2082 short-sale guideline; ‘in-anticipation’ of a rebound. Now while the FOME is a week away; essentially what you had was the post-Meeting conclusion ‘telegraphed’ to the Street; so one could say a non-move by the Fed is now ‘discounted’ in-advance, while any actual hike odds are now diminished. So if the Fed does hike (really last time before the Election they’d be likely to consider doing it); it would be this Meeting; or not until December.

Without discussing more about the Fed’s views (the media is doing too much of that with the words today being rather clear and flat); in-essence Government is unhappy they’re unable to create inflation, by which to (service if not) repay the US Debt with what I term ‘depreciated Greenbacks’. They’re not worried about debasing the buying power of U.S. citizens; as much as simply maintaining the ability to borrow and spend, which they can do better if tax revenues are up, and pressure to keep a lid on the Budge is tempered.

So it’s ‘not compelling’ to raise rates now (so says Brainard) and stocks soared right back to the breakdown zone (the higher of two supports); and about a half-way retracement. Suffice to say there was an extra 20 handles or so gain at the start today (early first half hour); and the weekend video had suggested a rally coming through one way or another (because nobody knew what she’s say). Plus never do we think (barring a ‘crash’) that the market would open lower like it did and not bounce thus making mincemeat of any who came in and shorted the opening.