VIX declined beneath weekly mid-Cycle support at 15.93, making a new Master Cycle low.The Cycles Model suggests VIX may begin to rally next week.An aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal) may be made with a rally back above mid-Cycle resistance.
(AFR) Even as a gauge of investor anxiety hovers close to the lowest level of 2016, the calm washing over the US stock market has a suspicious feel to some traders.
The concern is visible in the record number of shares outstanding in an exchange-traded note betting on an increase in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index. Share counts, which rise along with demand for ETFs, sit around the highest levels of the year for two other long-VIX securities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Meanwhile, the fear gauge has closed below 20 for 10 straight days, the longest such streak since December.
SPX closes above the 4.3-year trendline.
The SPX made another attempt at its 4.3-year trendline at 2025.00, closing above it.This trendline was originally broken on January 6, in the decline to the January 20 low. Trendlines are important support areas that often attract, then repel the markets.The boost above the trendline was made during options expiration and may be short-lived.
(ZZ) Flip-flopping Fed President Jim Bullard has done it again. Having helped spark the recent ramp in mid-Feb with his uber-dovish comments that “tightening was unwise,” he now expresses his hawkish opinion – with stocks back nearer record highs – that it would be “prudent policy to edge rates toward normal levels.” Is that a “sell’?
NDX ends week beneath Long-term resistance.
NDX closed beneath weekly Long-term resistance at 4421.81, completing a 62.5% retracement. Should it decline beneath weekly Intermediate-term support at 4362.20, NDX may be on a sell signal.
(ZeroHedge) While “most shorted” stocks have ripped higher in the last few weeks, and “weak balance sheet” stocks have soared, the real winner in this “dash for trash” is… garbage!!
It appears investors can’t get enough of “Waste & Disposal” stocks…
High Yield Bond Index makes a new high.
The High Yield Index has reached its Cycle Top resistance at 149.83 as investors search for yield. The retracement from the next decline may not be as generous.
(MarketRealist) High yield bond issuance rose last week as the stock Market improved due to the rise in oil prices. In mid-February, yields started falling, and issuers flocked to the high yield bond market. Further, market participants were closely watching for clues about a possible interest rate hike in the Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) meeting, which ended on March 16, 2016.
According to data from S&P Capital IQ/LCD, dollar-denominated high yield debt amounting to $4.1 billion, the highest in 2016 so far, was issued in the week ending March 11. In the previous week, high yield issuance stood at $3.7 billion. The number of transactions was up to six last week from three in the previous week. Last week brought the total US dollar-denominated issuance of high yield debt to $20.8 billion in 2016. This is 72.0% lower than the issuance in the corresponding period of 2015.
The Euro is rising again.
The Euro retested Long-term resistance at 110.44 before launching higher. The Cycles Model suggests a period of strength has begun and may continue through the end of the month with the minimum Pennant target in reach.
(ZeroHedge) Not everyone was delighted by Mario Draghi’s decision on March 10 begin monetizing corporate bonds: chief among them was Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann whose opposition to unorthodox monetary policies is well known, and whose “Northern Block” was among those voting against the ECB’s QE expansion (Weidmann himself was not among those voting last week). Of course, complaining about it does not mean stopping it, and for three years now the “Germans” on the ECB council have complained loudly even as the ECB is on track to double its balance sheet in the next few years.
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