E Precious Metals And Miners: Further Decline

Tomorrow’s employment numbers will likely decide if gold rebounds now or if prices will drop to break the May $1,214 low before bouncing. Whatever the case, precious metals and miners are expected to decline for several more weeks before reaching the 6-Month low.

Currently, I like September for the 6-month low. However, if prices drop far enough and fast enough, we could see a bottom in August. The depth and duration of the next rebound will narrow our focus.

US Dollar – The dollar can’t seem to get its footing; we need consecutive closes above the 10-day EMA to achieve a bottom.

Gold – Tomorrow’s close could set the short-term direction. A daily close above $1,229.50 will confirm the beginning of a rebound. Whereas, a daily close below $1,221.80 will lead to prices breaking the May $1,214.30 low.

Silver – Silver is at critical support. If the bear’s push prices below the $15.67 level we could see expanded selling. Let’s see what happens after tomorrow’s employment numbers.

GDX- Prices didn’t close above the $21.82 level. They may drift down to test the $21.00 area before generating a 1-2 week rebound. A swing low will confirm the beginning of an intervening bounce.

GDXJ- Junior miners continue to drop after gapping through the trendline.

DUST- The odds favor a rally to the upper triangle boundary or 200-day MA before a pullback.

JDST- I will monitor the action in GDX for possible exit signals. $77.50 -$80.00 seems reasonable if GDX tests the $21.00 zone.

SPY- Prices checked but couldn’t close above the 243 level. I think they will find a bottom around 239. Nevertheless, closing below 238 could lead to a broader correction.