E Revisiting The Big Picture On The Economy

As many of you know, I call readers everyday looking for fresh market intelligence and new ways to improve my service. Yesterday, I spoke to a seven-year follower who inspired me to write this piece.

She was thinking of quitting the stock market and not renewing my newsletter. A 50 year market veteran who grew up with a QUOTRON in her house, she was getting discouraged not just by the recent market action, but the public discussion in America as a whole.

I’ve seen this happen to a lot of people this year. The negative advertising is so ferocious that people are literally going insane. They are being driven to the edge of despair.

I said that for a start she had to turn off the TV.

Some $8 billion will be spent on media by political candidates this year who want to convince you how terrible things are so you can vote for them to fix them.

Turn off the TV and all of that suddenly goes away, and the world becomes a better place.

My response to all of this is to only look at numbers and the US instantly becomes a mighty fine place. A 5.0% unemployment rate. Interest rates are near zero. Energy prices at multi decade lows. Inflation is nowhere to be seen. Did I mention that the stock market is 4% short of an all time high.

Look at the world, and America is the only place you would want to keep your money. Every Chinese and Russian billionaire wants to park their money here as a safe haven. Here they get taxed. At home they get shot.

People are flocking here by the millions to take advantage of our economic opportunities, as they always have done.

Sure, there is an issue with our 2.5% GDP growth rate, a shadow of the 4% rate we saw during the go go 1990’s. I have a couple of theories about that.

1) Demographics

This has largely to do with the retirement of 80 million baby boomers. When our senior citizens pass from the economic scene, they stop spending and increase saving, switch from equity to fixed income investment, and downsize their homes.