E Teva Follow-Up

Israeli drug firm Teva (TEVA) whose CEO was ousted last night (I wrote a special blog to report this, which was reprinted by talkmarkets.com) today fell 4.2% as analysts worked out what it will mean. Some say buy and some say hold, nobody yet knows how the Israel firm will resolve its issues. Or even what they are. Israeli police are now investigating if there were violations of Israeli law in the bribing of foreign health insurance and hospital personnel in Mexico, Ukraine, and Russia to boost sales of Teva’s Copaxone against multiple sclerosis. That may have been the cause of the Vigodman ouster.

Sanford Bernstein believes TEVA’s modest dividend is safe but it also will cut guidance slightly because of the likelihood of generic competition for Copaxone.

Morningstar noted that Vigodman’s departure follows that of Siggy Olafsson who handled theActavis Generics integration after Teva paid $40.5 bn for the company. He stepped down in Dec. Morningstar concluded that Teva’s moat remains intact but worries about lack of due diligence and effective capital allocation under the former CEO.

Many other analysts are also two handed, to judge from Reuters but it said Tamir Fishman, an Israeli fund, claimed it had sold 90% of its Teva stock in the past 2 years. Another Israeli, Benny Landa, again called for Teva to be split into two parts, the generics business which should be sold, and the drug development side which should be kept Israeli. Reuters quotes another Israeli fund manager, Halman Aldubi, as saying a spin-out of the specialty drug business (OTC drugs) which could boost the share price. It has been buying Teva.

Andy Summers of Janus Capital told Bloomberg there is “lack of credibility at the top of the organization.” Janus owns Teva too. Wells Fargo Securities cut its estimate of EPS this year by 5 cents to $4.95 but says because of “uncertainty” it cannot recommend the shares.