The U.S. stock market was running up against some major headwinds for most of 2015. That is why the S&P 500 failed to make a meaningful new high this year.
The good news is that as 2015 draws to a close, these headwinds have all disappeared. As a result, the S&P will have an easier time going up in 2016. Double digit returns for the S&P in 2016 would not be shocking despite the S&P’s lackluster performance in 2015.
Below are 4 headwinds that have disappeared.
Fear of earnings slowdown
There was a real fear that earnings reports would miss expectations across the board in Q3 2015.
Q3 earnings data witnessed the largest drop in earnings since Q3 2009, when the U.S. economy was just climbing its way out of a massive recession. In addition, earnings contracted for the first time in six years (also since the last recession ended).
This has got many investors worried about how long the U.S. stock market could hold up in the face of such bad earnings.
The good news is that this “weak earnings season” was superficial. Yes, it’s true that earnings reports as a whole have been going down for quite some time. However, most of this is due to weak earnings reports from energy and basic material companies. Earnings reports from ex-raw material companies are still growing.
Commodity prices are most likely set to rise. Even the Federal Reserve thinks that the weakness in oil and other commodity prices will end soon.
Hence, it is logical to assume that if commodity prices rise soon, U.S. corporate earnings as a whole will improve in the near future. Weakness from energy and raw material companies will fade. This will be a boon to the U.S. stock market.
The U.S. dollar’s bull market is over
The U.S. dollar was in a massive bull market from Q3 2014 to Q1 2015. A strong U.S. dollar is bearish for the U.S. stock market.
It’s very likely that the U.S. dollar’s bull market is over. The U.S. dollar has already completed the final stage of a classic “bull market”. Classic bull markets follow this pattern.
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