“For most of the past half-century, adults in the U.S. Baby Boom generation – those born after World War II and before 1965 – have been the main driver of the nation’s expanding workforce. But as this large generation heads into retirement, the increase in the potential labor force will slow markedly, and immigrants will play the primary role in the future growth of the working-age population (though they will remain a minority of it).” (Jeffrey Passel and D’Vera Cohn, Immigration projected to drive growth in U.S. working-age population through at least 2035, Pew Research, March 8, 2017)
As the following chart indicates, during the 1970s the U.S. experienced a very rapid growth in its labour force. The rapid labour force growth in the 1970s reflected two dramatic changes: the baby-boom generation reached working age and an increase in women working outside their homes.
However, since the 1970s, the labour force has continued to expand, but at ever slower growth rates. Indeed, BLS projections suggest a substantial slowdown in the annual growth pace of labour force for the 2015-25 period due to the baby-boom generation retiring and leaving the work force.
The labor force is projected to grow over the next 10 years at an average annual rate of about 0.2%, far slower than in recent decades. Aside from the continued aging of the U.S. population, the labor force labor force participation rate is also projected to decline over the projection period.
Projections provided by Pew Research highlight the importance of immigration in supporting the growth of working-age population in the U.S.Indeed, without any new immigrants, by 2015 the working age population group which supports the U.S. economy would shrink back to 2005 levels.
The Pew Research Center report indicates that the U.S. working-age population (people aged 25-64), which was 173.2 million in 2015, will shrink to 165.6 million by 2035 without immigrants entering the country. At current rates of immigration, by contrast, the worker pool would expand to 183.2 million.
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