There is no a trader alive who won’t fall down on his knees and thank the Heavens he didn’t get involved in commodities last year.
I AM ONE OF THOSE TRADERS!
It’s not that we were without opportunities. With every downside swoon, we were barraged with claims from brokers, producers, and the Internet that THIS WAS THE BOTTOM AND IT IS TIME TO BUY!
It wasn’t.
So many fingers were chopped off by falling knives that they were enough to man several symphony orchestras, if not armies.
If you want to know who last year’s commodity bulls were they’re easy to find. Their resume’s are all over Craig’s List, Linked in, and other head hunting services.
However, the price action last week is making me wonder whether we finally HAVE seen the bottom in commodities.
THIS TIME IT MAY BE DIFFERENT!
Look no further than my February 9 Trade Alert Buy the United States Oil Fund (USO) May, 2016 $8 calls at $1.12 or best. Today, they traded at $1.60, up a blistering 42.86% in just 9 trading days. I put out this Trade Alert because I believed that oil would bounce hard off of a $26 double. It did. Texas Tea is now trading just short of $32, a nice 23% pop.
Now I am a pretty good trader. But I am not THAT good. The only way to get this kind of instant result is to suddenly pickup a tailwind from a new market or economic force.
That me have been just what happened.
BUT WAIT! THERE’S MORE!
Guess what the top performing sectors in the market are this year? Energy and commodities, as I predicted in my “2016 Annual Asset Class Review” (click here).
Single stocks have gone ballistic since the mid-January lows, like Freeport McMoran (FCX) (+129%) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) (+22%).
Indeed, oil stocks have made it back to their September levels, when oil was trading at $46. Which is underpriced now, oil or energy stocks?
You can see identical action across the commodities space. Railroads (CSX), (UNP), whose primary business is the moving of bulk commodities like oil and coal, are up 19% so far this year.
Leave A Comment