EC All-Around Strength In Q3 Earnings Season

We are past the halfway mark in the Q3 earnings season, with results from 54% of the S&P 500 members already out. This reporting season has turned out to be very good, further strengthening the narrative of a favorable earnings backdrop that has been in place over the last few quarters.

The Technology sector became the latest to come out with impressive Q3 results, which will likely get reconfirmed with this week’s results from Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB). In total, we have almost 900 companies on deck to release results this week, including 134 S&P 500 members. By the end of this week, we will have seen Q3 results from more than 80% of S&P 500 members. Unlike the large-cap stocks in the S&P 500 index, we are still at a relatively early stage in the small-cap reporting cycle. As of Friday, October 27th, we have seen results from almost 31% of the small-cap S&P 600 members, with the reporting tally crossing the halfway mark by the end of this week.

Let me make a quick comment about expectations from Apple and Facebook before highlighting four points about the Q3 earnings season as a whole.

Apple shares have regained the ground they lost following the latest iPhone announcement in September, but there is plenty of uncertainty in the market about the outlook for the higher-end iPhone X. The stock is now up +40.1% in the year-to-date period vs. +22.5% gain for the Zack Tech sector and +14.2% gain for the S&P 500 index. This strong year-to-date performance notwithstanding, the stock has lagged the sector as well as the broader market since the September 12th product announcement.

The company is expected to earn $1.86 per share on $51.17 billion, up from $1.66 per share on $46.56 billion in the year-earlier period. The company has handily beaten estimates in each of the last three quarters. More than EPS and revenue surprises, the key metric for the market will be iPhone shipments with the Zacks Consensus estimate of 46.42 million units in the period, which will be up from 45.5 million units shipped in the year-earlier quarter.

Apple will report Q3 results after the market’s close on Thursday, November 2.

Facebook shares have been star performers this year, with the sock up +54.3% vs. +22.5% gain for the Zacks Tech sector and +14.2% gain for the S&P 500 index. Facebook is scheduled to report results after the market’s close on Wednesday, November 1, with the company expected to earn $1.30 per share on $9.88 billion in revenues, up +19.5% and +40.9% from the year-earlier level, respectively.

Performance in terms of advertising revenue and active users will be even more material for the stock price than revenues and EPS. The expectation is for ad revenues of $9.71 billion (up from $6.8 billion in the year-earlier period) and daily active users tally of 1.371 billion (up from 1.179 billion in 2016 Q3).  

Here are the four key points about the Q3 earnings season.

First, there is clear momentum on the revenue front, with growth notably accelerating from other recent periods. Total revenues for the 272 S&P 500 members that have reported results, as of Friday, October 27th, are up +6.7% from the same period last year, which compares to +5.5% top-line growth for the same group of companies in the preceding quarter and still lower average growth rates in the prior periods, as the comparison chart below shows.