For well over a year now the corporate bond market has been signaling a major shift in investor risk appetites from risk seeking to risk aversion. This is exactly how bull markets morph into bear markets. This risk aversion has grown so much that, in certain areas of the corporate bond market, there are literally no bids.
#NoBid https://t.co/2Szd9qKPkF
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) February 19, 2016
Further evidence of the lack of buyers in the credit markets can be seen in the market for leveraged loans, especially those tied to M&A.
The Dell for EMC loans are “priced to sell” and still not selling… https://t.co/SFWohh9ojG
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) February 12, 2016
And it’s not just here at home. The leveraged loan market overseas is also suffering from a serious lack of buyers.
Europe Leveraged Loans Post Longest Run of Losses Since Crisis https://t.co/yBlmiZYnk9 pic.twitter.com/hrfKDBWGjk
— Pedro da Costa (@pdacosta) February 18, 2016
It’s interesting to note that at the same time, investors in the secondary market for shares in popular startups were recently hotly competing for shares offered there. Today, just like we are seeing in certain corners of the corporate credit market, there are no bids for shares of these highly-valued private companies.
Similar to March 2000: buyers just dry uphttps://t.co/WjUxJtK3BU
— Fritz (@Fritz_100) February 19, 2016
In order for their investors to cash out, unicorns might normally look to the public markets. The trouble is there are no bids here, either.
IPO Market Dries Up as Investors Retreathttps://t.co/62quZQv8r3 pic.twitter.com/SjSsoYpSEo
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) February 19, 2016
All of this confirms the idea that investors are generally becoming more risk averse, an attitude typically seen early in bear markets. And if history is any guide, it’s only just beginning.
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