EC The Importance Of Today’s Events Going Forward

There were two developments today that are important for investors to know about before the markets open on Friday to close the month.  

First, and most importantly, the results of the OPEC meeting are the most negative outcome for prices. OPEC, which over-produced in October, decided to roll-over the existing quota 30 mln barrels a day. We had noted that the timing of it next meeting would be an important tell.  It did not decide to schedule a meeting in the February-March period, when the seasonal demand slacked.  Instead the next OPEC meeting is for June.  

The market’s reaction was immediate. The price of Brent oil fell almost $5 to slip below $73 a barrel. The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate Crude oil fell 5% to almost $69 a barrel. The IMF estimates that every $10 drop in the price of oil boosts world’s growth by 0.2%.  The drop in oil prices can be expected to boost growth by around 0.8% or so in 2015.  

The drop in oil prices transfers income from producers to consumers.  Oil stocks and shares of the energy sector more broadly fell, driven by the sharp drop in oil prices.  The energy component of the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe fell 3.8% on Thursday, while the broader market gained 0.35%. Confronted with the same shock–the drop in oil prices, the US policy makers will see it in the context of growth while the European policy maker will likely pit in the context of the evolution in prices.  

US gasoline prices are more influenced by the price of Brent. The average American household spends about $2,000 a year on energy. The drop in prices of oil and gasoline may be worth $400-$600 a year. That said, US personal consumption has been amazingly steady, averaging 0.3% monthly rise for 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. This is being funded mostly through income growth (more than 2 mln net jobs have been created in the first ten months of the year. Revolving credit debt has barely risen.