EC When You Exit The Stock Market, Don’t Let The Door Hit You On Your Way Out

You cannot make this stuff up. The median stock in the S&P 500 has never been more overvalued on price-to-earnings growth (PEG) and price-to-sales (P/S). On a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis – where profitability expectations already reflect pie-in-the-sky speculation – the median company’s shares trade in the 96th percentile. That’s pretty darn pricey!

Credit Goldman Sachs for the assessment. For that matter, give the financial conglomerate kudos for acknowledging the strong possibility that one might be wise to “sell in May” after all.

Hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller, who spoke at an investment conference in New York last week, forcibly advised exiting stocks as well. One of his reasons? The stock market in 1982 versus the stock market in 2016. He said, “It is hard to avoid the comparison with 1982 when the market sold for 7-times depressed earnings with dozens of rate cuts and productivity rising going forward vs. 18-times inflated earnings, productivity declining and no further ammo on interest rates.”

Granted, overpriced stocks cannot and will not tell anyone the near-term direction of the market. What’s more, ultra-low borrowing costs a la zero percent interest rate policy largely drove risk assets like stocks to unbelievable extremes.  On the other hand, front-loading investment returns over the past seven years has pilfered the potential gains one might have anticipated over the next seven years. The Federal Reserve’s own Richard Fisher confirmed the central bank’s front-loading endeavors back in January.

Consider an analysis by Steve Sjuggerud. He analyzed data going back to 1870 with respect to what happened to annualized returns after seven incredible years like the current bull market. The anticipated gains over the next one, three, five and seven years were not particularly promising. In essence, the past’s remarkable returns confiscated the prospects for the future.