Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion.
Given what’s happened this year, especially how different it’s been from what it was supposed to have been, the suggestion was for “downside” rather than “balanced” risks. This would be more like reality.
The Governing Council today for one of the few times rejected the advice. At its latest policy meeting, the ECB officially keeps its assessment as “balanced” economic risks. Good for them, it’s quite an emotional toll to surrender.
At the same time, however, their projections are beginning to roll over anyway. In terms of inflation (HICP), they no longer are projecting inflation to accelerate further. Since last September’s forecasts, the models had been riding the rise in oil prices to a situation closer to the central bank target. As of the current modeled runs, European inflation still won’t reach 2% anytime soon.
For economic growth (real GDP), the numbers are already starting to come down. For the second time in a row, the macro figures for 2018 have been reduced. Back in March, the ECB staff were seeing 2.4% in growth for this year, picking up on last year’s supposedly strong finish. They always extrapolate in straight lines, clearly unable to determine what it is that moves the global economy one way or another.
The September estimates have been pared back to 2.0%, and for the first time the 2019 estimates were lowered a touch. What happened in between March and September?
Nothing much, at least according to Mario Draghi. He’s clinging steadfast to the idea 2017 reflation somehow lives on. He didn’t say “transitory” but that’s just what he meant.
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