ECB Meeting Promises Fireworks

Fasten your seat belts. The ride is going to get bumpy. Economists may differ on what the ECB will do. Investors may differ on the market response.This uncertainty ensures a strong market reaction.

The euro is off about 0.25% after recovering in the North American session yesterday. The euro has spent this week thus far mostly within last Friday’s trading range.It has finished the North American session in the last four sessions between $1.0999 and $1.1014 according to Bloomberg.  

The other major currencies are little changed. The Canadian dollar is consolidating yesterday’s strong gain. The New Zealand dollar has steadied after extending the RBNZ-inspired decline. 

Asian equities were mixed, leaving the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index little changed. Japan, Korea (rates were left unchanged at the central bank meeting), Taiwan and Malaysia saw equity gains, while the rest of the region, including China, slipped lower. 

China’s inflation data stands out in the relatively light news session. Consumer prices rose 2.3% in February.The 7.3% surge in food prices may be linked to the Lunar New Year. Non-food goods and services prices eased. Producer prices fell 4.9% year-over-year, compared with a negative 5.3% pace in January.Producer prices have been falling for a full four years.Separately, Japan reported its February producer prices fell 3.4% in February.The recent negative reading began last April, which was the outright decline since March 2013. 

The ECB is center stage. The larger context of the meeting is the political leadership vacuum with Merkel exhausting much of her political capital on the refugee challenge.There are also growing doubts among investors of the efficacy of negative interest rates and QE itself. The scar tissue from the December disappointment is still fresh. 

The economic backdrop is one of renewed deflation, fragile and uneven growth (though Germany and France have reported stronger than expected January industrial output figures).  As Draghi noted previously, fiscal policy may be marginally relaxed due to refugee-related spending.