Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of May 1
May 1
Personal Income – March
0.3%
0.4
0.3
Personal Spending
0.2
0.1
0.1
ISM (Mfg) – April
56.6
57.2
56.5
ISM Prices
70.5
Construction Spending – March
0.5%
0.8
0.5
May 2
Auto Sales* – April
17.1M
16.56
17.2
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
May 3
ADP Employment Report – April
190K
263
170
PMI Services Index
52.5
52.5
52.3
ISM Services – April
55.9
55.2
55.8
FMOC Announcement
0.875%
0.875
0.875
May 4
Initial Jobless Claims
247
257
246
International Trade – March
-$44.0B
-43.5
-44.5
Productivity – Q1 (p)
-0.6%
1.3
0.0
Unit Labor Costs
3.1
1.7
2.5
Factory Orders – March
0.3%
1.0
0.4
Durable Goods Orders
0.7
1.8
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.2
0.2
May 5
Nonfarm Payrolls – April
195K
98
185
Private
190
89
180
Manufacturing
10
11
12.5
Unemployment
4.5%
4.5
4.6
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.3
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.2
0.3
Consumer Credit – March
$16.0B
15.2
15.6
Week of May 8
May 9
Wholesale Inventories – March
0.0%
0.2
May 10
Export Prices – April
0.1%
0.2
Import Prices
0.2
-0.2
Treasury Budget – April
175.8
176.2
May 11
Producer Price Index – April
0.2%
-0.1
PPI less food, energy and trade services
0.2
0.1
May 12
Consumer Price Index – April
0.3%
-0.3
Core CPI
0.2
-0.1
Retail Sales – April
0.4%
-0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.3
0
Retail Sales,ex autos and gas
0.3
0.3
Business Inventories – March
0.1%
0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – May (p)
98.0
97.0
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