Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 24 And May 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of April 24

       

April 24

       

Chicago Fed National Economy Activity – March

0.4

0.34

0.3

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

18

16.9

15.0

           

April 25

       

FHFA House Price Index – February

0.5%

0.0

0.4

           

S&P Case/Shiller Index – February

       

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.2

   

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.8

0.9

0.6

 

Twenty City Y/Y

5.8

5.7%

5.8

           

PMI Services Flash Index

53.6

52.8

   

New Home Sales – March

580K

592

584K

 

Consumer Confidence

124.0

125.6

123.6

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

16.0

22.0

16.0

           

April 27

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

247K

244

243

 

Durable Goods Sales – March

0.8%

1.8

1.1

 

International Trade in Goods – February

-$65.8B

64.8

-65.3

 

Pending Home Sales Index – March

111.5

112.3

112

 

Kansas City Manufacturing Index

16

20

             

April 28

       

GDP – Q1 (a)

1.3%

2.1

1.1

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

           

Employment Cost Index – Q4

0.5%

0.5

0.6

 

Employment Cost Index – Y/Y

2.1

2.2

             

Chicago PMI

57.0

57.7

56.5

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (r)

98.2

98.0

98.0

           

Week of May 1

       

May 1

       

Personal Income – March

0.3%

0.4

   

Personal Spending

0.2

0.1

             

ISM (Mfg) – April

56.6

57.2

   

ISM Prices

 

70.5

             

Construction Spending – March

0.5%

0.8

             

May 2

       

Auto Sales* – April

17.05M

16.56

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

May 3

       

ADP Employment Report – April

190K

263

             

PMI Services Index

 

52.5

             

ISM Services – April

55.8

55.2

             

FMOC Announcement

0.875%

0.875

             

May 4

       

International Trade – March

-$45.0B

-43.5

                       

Productivity – Q1 (p)

0.0%

1.3

   

Unit Labor Costs

2.5

1.7

             

May 5

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – April

195K

98

   

Private

190

89

   

Manufacturing

10

11

   

Unemployment

4.5%

4.5

   

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.3

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

   

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

           

Consumer Credit – March

$16.5B

15.2