Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Dec. 11 And Dec. 18

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 11

December 11

JOLTS-October

6.093

6.093

6.090

December 12

Producer Price Index – November

0.3%

0.4

0.3

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget – November

-$130.0B

-63.2

December 13

Consumer Price Index – November

0.4%

0.1

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

FMOC

1.375%

1.125

1.375

December 14

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

236

240

Retail Sales – October

0.5%

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

0.1

0.6

Export Prices – November

0.3%

0.0

0.2

Import Prices

0.8

0.2

0.7

PMI Services Flash Index

54.8

54.5(f)

55.0

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.0

53.9(f)

54.0

Business Inventories – October

-0.1%

0.0

-0.1

December 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.2

18.4

Industrial Production – November

0.3%

0.9

0.3

Capacity Utilization

77.2

77.0

77.2

Manufacturing

0.3

1.3

0.3

Week of December 18

December 18

NAHB Index

70

70

70

December 19

Housing Starts – November

1.230M

1.290

1.230

Building Permits

1.260

1.297

1.263

Current Account – Q3

-$117.6B

-121.3

December 20

Existing Home Sales – November

5.480M

5.480

5.520

December 21

GDP – Q3 (f)

3.2%

3.3

3.3

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

Initial Unemployment Claims

Philadelphia Fed Survey

21.5

22.7

21.5

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – November

0.40

0.65

FHFA Housing Price Index – Oct

0.4%

0.3

Leading Indicators – Nobember

0.2%

1.2

0.3

December 22

Durable Goods Orders – November

2.0%

-0.8

1.50

Personal Income – November

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.3

0.3

New Home Sales – November

640K

685

649