Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 27 And December 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of November 27

       

November 27

       

New Home Sales – October

625K

667

620

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

25.0

27.6

24.5

           

November 28

       

International Trade in Goods – October

-$66.0B

-64.1

-65.0

 

FHFA Housing Price Index – Sept

0.5%

0.7

0.6

           

S&P Case/Shiller Index – September

       

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.4

0.4

 

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.3

0.5

0.4

 

Twenty City Y/Y

6.2

5.9

6.2

           

Consumer Confidence – November

126.3

125.9

124.3

 

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

12

15

           

November 29

       

GDP – Q2 (r)

3.2%

3.0

3.3

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.2

2.2

2.2

           

Pending Home Sale Index – October

107.0

106.0

107.1

           

November 30

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

239

240

           

Personal Income – October

0.3%

0.4

0.3

 

Personal Spending

0.3

1.0

0.3

           

Chicago PMI

63.8

66.2

64.0

           

December 1

       

Auto Sales* – November

17.6M

18.1

17..6

 

Car Sales

6.4

6.6

   

Truck Sales

11.2

11.5

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

PMI Manufacturing Index – November

53.8

53.8

   

ISM (Mfg) – November

58.4

58.7

58.4

           

Construction Spending – October

0.6%

0.3

0.5

           

Week of December 4

       

December 4

       

Factory Orders – October

-0.4%

1.4

   

Durable Goods Orders

-1.2

2.0

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.8

             

December 5

       

International Trade – October

-$45.0B

-43.5

             

PMI Services Index

54.7

54.7

   

ISM Services – November

59.6

60.1

             

December 6

       

ADP Employment Report – November

235K

235.0

             

Productivity – Q3 (r)

3.2%

3.0

   

Unit Labor Costs

0.3

0.5

             

December 7

       

Consumer Credit – October

$18.0B

20.8

             

December 8

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – November

250K

261K

   

Private

245

252

   

Manufacturing

20

24

   

Unemployment

4.0%

4.1

   

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.4

   

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

             

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Dec (p)

98.8

98.5

             

Wholesale Inventories – October

0.3%

0.3