Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 16 And October 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 16

       

October 16

       

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

24.4

20.0

 

Treasury Budget – September

$4.0B

-107.7

3.0

           

October 17

       

Export Prices – September

0.5%

0.6

0.5

 

Import Prices

0.7

0.6

0.4

 

Import Prices, ex-Energy

0.2

0.2

             

Industrial Production – August

0.3%

-0.9

0.1

 

Capacity Utilization

76.3

76.1

76.2

 

Manufacturing

0.3

-0.3

0.3

           

NAHB Index

66

64

64

           

October 18

       

Housing Starts – September

1.190M

1.180

1.170

 

Building Permits

1.260

1.300

.1230

           

October 19

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

243K

243

240

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

23.8

20.2

 

Leading Indicators

0.1%

0.4

0.1

           

October 20

       

Existing Home Sales – September

5.380M

5.350

5.300

           

Week of October 23

       

October 23

       

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

-0.10%

-0.31

             

October 24

       

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53

53.1

   

PMI Services Flash Index

55.1

55.3

   

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

19

             

October 25

       

Durable Goods Sales – September

0.5%

2.0

   

FHFA House Price Index – August

0.3

0.2

   

New Home Sales – September

550K

560

             

October 26

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

       

International Trade in Goods

-$63.9B

-62.9

   

Pending Home Sale Index – September

107.7

106.3

   

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

 

17

             

October 27

       

GDP – Q3 (a)

2.6%

3.1

   

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)

101.1

101.1