Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 30 And November 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

     

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 30

       

October 30

       

Personal Income – September

0.4%

0.2

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.9

0.1

0.9

           

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

21.3

21.3

21.3

           

October 31

       

Employment Cost Index – Q3

0.6%

0.5

0.7

 

Employment Cost Index – Y/Y

2.4

2.4

             

S&P Case/Shiller Index – August

       

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.7

0.6

 

Twenty City M/M – SA

0.2

0.3

0.5

 

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.8

6.0

           

Chicago PMI

62.0

65.2

62.0

 

Consumer Confidence

120.5

119.8

121.0

           

November 1

       

Auto Sales* – September

17.47K

18.57

17.50

 

Car Sales

6.31

6.81

   

Truck Sales

11.16

11.76

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

PMI Manufacturing Index – October

54.5

54.5

54.5

           

ISM (Mfg) – October

59.0

60.8

59.5

 

ISM Prices

                 

Construction Spending – September

0.3%

0.5

0.1

 

FMOC

1.125%

1.125

1.125

           

November 2

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

235K

233K

235

           

Productivity – Q3 (p)

2.4%

1.5

2.4

 

Unit Labor Costs

0.6

0.2

0.6

           

November 3

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – October

350K

-33

323

 

Private

340

-40

320

 

Manufacturing

20

-1

19

 

Unemployment

4.4%

4.2

4.3

 

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.5

0.2

           

International Trade – September

-$43.6

-42.4

-43.2

 

PMI Services Index

55.9

55.9

55.9

           

ISM Services – October

59.3

59.8

58.7

 

ISM Prices

       

ISM Business Activity

                 

Factory Orders – September

1.2%

1.2

1.2

 

Durable Goods Orders

2.2

2.0

   

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.4

             

Week of November 6

       

November 7

       

Consumer Credit – September

$16.5B

13.1

16.5

           

November 9

       

Wholesale Inventories – September

0.3%

0.3

             

November 10

       

Treasury Budget – October

-$48B

8.0