Economic Data For The Weeks Of October 31 And November 7

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of October 31

       

October 31

       

Personal Income – September

0.4%

0.2

0.4

 

Personal Spending

0.6

0.0

0.5

           

Chicago PMI

54.2

54.2

54.3

 

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

-3.7

             

November 1

       

PMI Manufacturing Index – October

53.2

53.2

             

ISM (Mfg) – October

51.5

51.5

51.6

 

ISM Prices

 

53.0

             

Construction Spending – September

0.5%

-0.7

0.6

           

Auto Sales* – September

17.6M

17.8

17.6

 

Car Sales

7.1

7.2

   

Truck Sales

10.4

10.5

   

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

                 

November 2

       

ADP Employment Report – October

160K

154

170

 

FMOC

0.375%

0.375

0.375

           

November 3

       

Initial Unemployment Claims

255K

258

260

           

Productivity – Q3 (p)

2.6%

-0.6

2.2

 

Unit Labor Costs

1.0

4.3

1.4

           

ISM Services – October

56.0

57.1

56.1

           

Factory Orders – September

0.2%

0.2

0.2

           

November 4

       

Nonfarm Payrolls – October

170K

156

175

 

Private

160

167

167

 

Unemployment

4.9%

5.0

4.9

 

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

 

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

           

International Trade – September

-$41.1

-40.7

-38.6

           

Week of November 7

       

November 7

       

Consumer Credit – September

$17.0B

25.9

             

November 8

       

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index – October

94.1

94.1

             

November 9

       

Wholesale Inventories – September

0.1%

-0.2

             

November 10

       

Treasury Budget – October

-$73.0B

33.4

             

November 11

       

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – November (p)

87.2

87.2