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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. |
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Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
Week of December 4 |
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December 4 |
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Factory Orders – October |
-2.5% |
2.8 |
-2.6 |
Durable Goods Orders |
-5.4 |
4.6 |
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Nondurable Goods Orders |
0.5 |
1.0 |
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December 5 |
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PMI Services Index – November |
50.8 |
50.8 |
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ISM Services – November |
51.8 |
51.8 |
52.0 |
JOLTS-October |
9.400M |
9.533 |
9.350 |
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December 6 |
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ADP Employment Report – November |
130K |
113 |
128 |
International Trade – October |
-$64.3B |
-61.5 |
-64.1 |
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Productivity – Q3 (r) |
5.0% |
4.7 |
4.9 |
Unit Labor Costs |
-0.8 |
-0.8 |
-0.9 |
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December 7 |
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Initial Unemployment Claims |
220K |
218 |
223 |
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Wholesale Inventories – October (p) |
-0.2% |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
Wholesale Sales |
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Consumer Credit – October |
$9.0B |
9.0 |
9.0 |
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December 8 |
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Nonfarm Payrolls – November |
150K |
150 |
180 |
Private |
130 |
99 |
155 |
Manufacturing |
35 |
-35 |
25 |
Unemployment |
3.9% |
3.9 |
3.9 |
Average Workweek |
34.3HR |
34.3 |
34.3 |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.3% |
0.2 |
0.3 |
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Dec (p) |
61.8 |
61.3 |
62.0 |
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Week of December 11 |
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December 12 |
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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November |
90.7 |
90.7 |
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Consumer Price Index – November |
0.0% |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Core CPI |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Treasury Budget – November |
-$219.0B |
-66.6 |
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December 13 |
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Producer Price Index – November |
0.1% |
-0.5 |
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PPI less food, energy and trade services |
0.3 |
0.1 |
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FMOC |
5.375% |
5.375 |
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December 14 |
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Retail Sales – November |
0.0% |
-0.1 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
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Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.0 |
0.1 |
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Export Prices – November |
-1.0% |
-1.1 |
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Import Prices |
1.0 |
-0.8 |
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Business Inventories – October |
0.0% |
0.4 |
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December 15 |
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
5.0 |
9.1 |
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Industrial Production – November |
0.3% |
-0.3 |
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Capacity Utilization |
79.1 |
79.4 |
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Manufacturing |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
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PMI Manufacturing Flash Index |
49.4 |
49.4 |
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More By This Author:Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 20 & 27 Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Nov. 6 & 13 Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 30 & Nov. 6
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