Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.       Forecast Prior Observation   Week of  February 3       February 3       PMI Manufacturing Index – January 50.1 50.1           ISM (Mfg) – January 48.3% 49.3   ISM Prices               Auto Sales – January 16.6M 16.8   Car Sales 3.1 3.0   Truck Sales 13.5 13.9           February 4       Factory Orders – December -0.9% -0.4   Durable Goods Orders -2.2 -1.2   Nondurable Goods Orders  0.5 0.4           JOLTS – December 8.000M 8.098           February 5       ADP Employment Survey – January 155K 122   International Trade – December -$87.4B -78.2   PMI Services Index – January 52.8 52.8           ISM Services – January 55.1 54.1           February 6       Productivity – Q(4) – preliminary 2.0% 2.2   Unit Labor Cost 4.2 0.8           Initial Unemployment Claims 215K 207           February 7       Nonfarm Payrolls – January  180K 256   Private 165 223   Manufacturing 5.0 -13   Unemployment 4.1% 4.1   Average Workweek 34.3HR 34.3   Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.3           Michigan Consumer Sentiment – February (p) 72.0 71.1           Wholesale Inventories (f) -0.5% -0.5   Consumer Credit – December $12.5B -7.5           Week of  February 10       February 11       NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – January 103.5 105.1           February 12       Consumer Price Index – January 0.3% 0.4   Core CPI 0.3 0.2           Treasury Budget – January -$45.5B -86.7           February 13       Producer Price Index – January 0.3% 0.2   PPI less food, energy and trade services 0.2 0.1           February 14       Retail Sales – January 0.4% 0.4   Retail Sales, ex Autos 0.4 0.4   Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas 0.3 0.3           Export Prices – January 0.3% 0.3   Import Prices 0.4 0.1   Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum -0.1 0.2           Industrial Production – January 0.2% 0.9   Manufacturing Output 0.0 0.6   Capacity Utilization 77.6 77.6           Business Inventories – December -0.1 0.1

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