Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Oct. 30 & Nov. 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data: Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of October 30

October 30

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-16.0

-18.1

October 31

Employment Cost Index - Q3

1.0%

1.0

1.0

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

4.3

4.5

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.3%

0.6

0.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.9

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

1.6%

0.1

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.5%

0.8

Chicago PMI

46.0

44.1

45.0

Consumer Confidence

100.0

103.0

November 1

ADP Employment Report - October

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

50.0

50.0

ISM (Mfg) - October

48.2

49.0

49.0

Construction Spending - September

0.4%

0.5

JOLTS - September

9.500M

9.610

9.200

Auto Sales* - October

15.1M

15.7

Car Sales

3.2

3.2

Truck Sales

11.9

12.4

FMOC

5.375%

5.375

November 2

Productivity - Q3 (p)

4.0%

3.5

4.0

Unit Labor Costs

0.8

2.3

0.8

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

Factory Orders - September

2.9%

1.2

1.9

Durable Goods Orders

4.7

0.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

1.0

2.1

November 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

155K

Private

Manufacturing

-20

Unemployment

3.8%

3.8

3.8

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.2

0.3

PMI Services Index

50.9

50.9

ISM Services - October

52.6 53.6 53.0 Week of November 6 November 7 International Trade – September -$59.7B -58.3 Consumer Credit – September $12.0B -15.6 November 8 Wholesale Inventories – September 0.0 0.0 November 10 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p) 65.0 63.8 Treasury Budget – October $35B -171.0

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