Economic Forecast Data For The Weeks Of December 12 And 19

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

       

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

 

Week of December 12

       

December 12

       

Treasury Budget – November

-$125.0B

-44.2

-135.0

           

December 13

       

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

96.5

94.9

96.5

           

Export Prices –  November

-0.2%

0.2

0.0

 

Import Prices

-0.4

0.5

-0.4

           

December 14

       

Producer Price Index – November

0.1%

0.0

0.2

           

Retail Sales – November

0.5%

0.8

0.4

 

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.8

0.3

           

Industrial Production – November

-0.1%

0.0

-0.2

 

Manufacturing

-0.1

0.2

-0.1

 

Capacity Utilization

75.1

75.3

75.0

           

Business Inventories – October

-0.1%

0.1

0.0

 

FMOC

0.625%

0.325

0.625

           

December 15

       

Consumer Price Index – November

0.1%

0.4

0.2

 

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

           

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

258

255

 

Philadelphia Fed Survey

9.5

7.8

10.0

 

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

3.0

1.5

3.0

 

Current Account – Q3

-$112.0B

-119.9

-111.6

 

NAHB Index

63

63

63.00

           

December 16

       

Housing Starts – November

1.125M

1.323

1.230

 

Building Permits

1.130

1.229

1.240

           

Week of December 19

       

December 19

       

PMI Services Flash Index

54.0

54.6

             

December 21

       

Existing Home Sales – November

5.500M

5.6

5.570

           

December 22

       

Durable Goods Orders – November

-3.3%

4.6

-3.1

           

GDP – Q3 (f)

3.3%

3.2

3.3

 

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.4

1.4

             

Personal Income – November

0.3%

0.6

0.3

 

Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.4

           

Chicago Fed National Activity Index – November

54.2

57.6

   

FHFA Housing Price Index  – Oct

0.5%

0.6

   

Leading Indicators – Nobember

0.2

0.1

             

December 23

       

New Home Sales – November

580K

563

570

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment – December (r)

98.0

98.0