EM FX ended the week on a mixed note, but still capped off a strong week overall.US data this week could challenge the market’s dovish take on the Fed. For now, though, the global liquidity outlook still seems to favor further gains in EM.
China should report August new loan and money supply data this week, but no date is set. New loans are expected at CNY950 bln vs. CNY826 bln in July.China reports August retail sales and IP Thursday. The former is expected to rise 10.5% y/y and the latter by 6.6% y/y.
Czech Republic reports August CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% in July. Central bank Governor Rusnok said recently that he would prefer to wait for the next staff forecasts due at the November 2 meeting before deciding on further tightening. Next policy meeting is September 27, so a hike then seems highly unlikely.
Turkey reports Q2 GDP Monday, which is expected to grow 5.3% y/y vs. 5.0% in Q1. It also reports August budget data Monday. The central bank then meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady. July current account will be reported Friday, and is expected at -$5.2 bln vs. -$3.8 bln in June.August budget data will also be reported Friday.
Mexico reports July IP Monday, which is expected to rise 0.1% y/y vs. -0.3% in June. The economy remains weak but still-rising inflation should prevent any near-term easing. Indeed, we see no rate cuts until around mid-2018. Next Banxico meeting is September 28, no change is expected then.
Russia reports July trade Monday. The central bank meets Friday and is expected to cut rates 50 bp to 8.5%. However, the market is split. Of the 16 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 7 see a 25 bp cut and 9 see a 50 bp cut. August CPI rose 3.3% y/y, lower than expected and below the 4% target. As such, we lean towards a 50 bp cut.
India reports August CPI and July IP Tuesday. Inflation is seen at 3.23% y/y vs. 2.36% in July, while IP is seen rising 1.7% y/y vs. -0.1% in June. India then reports August WPI Thursday, which is expected to rise 3.15% y/y vs. 1.88% in July. The RBI cut rates last month, but warned that inflation had bottomed and would move higher in H2. We see steady rates at the next policy meeting October 4.
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