Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead – Feb. 12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, as risk assets recovered a bit from broad-based selling pressures. Best EM performers on the week were ZAR, PHP, and CNY while the worst were COP, RUB, and ARS. Besides the risk-off impulses still reverberating through global markets, we think lower commodity prices are another headwind on EM. 

China is expected to report January money and loan data this week, but no date has been set. Consensus sees an increase in aggregate financing of CNY3.15 trillion with new loans making up CNY2.05 trillion. For now, we see CNY trading with the rest of EM. We do not see a deliberate campaign to weaken the yuan. 

Singapore reports December retail sales Monday, which are expected to rise 4.5% y/y vs. 5.3% in November. January trade data will be reported Thursday, with NODX expected to rise 7.1% y/y vs. 3.1% in December. Inflation remains low while the real sector data has been spotty. A lot can happen between now and the April MAS meeting but we lean towards steady policy then. 

India reports January CPI and December IP Monday. The former is expected to rise 5.1% y/y and the latter by 6.1% y/y. January WPI will be reported Wednesday, which is expected to rise 3.2% y/y vs. 3.6% in December. The RBI delivered a hawkish hold last week and we think there are rising odds of a hike at the next policy meeting April 5. January trade data will be reported Thursday. 

Colombia’s  central bank releases its quarterly inflation report Monday. It cut rates 25 bp to 4.5% at the January meeting, as expected. The next policy meeting is March 20, and another 25 bp cut then seems likely. December trade, retail sales, and IP will be reported Wednesday.  Q4 GDP will be reported Thursday, and growth is expected to remain steady at 2.0% y/y. 

Peru reports December trade Monday. It then reports Q4 GDP Thursday. The economy remains weak, and the latest leg down in copper prices is a concern. CPI rose 1.3% y/y in January, which is in the bottom half of the 1-3% target range. The next central bank policy meeting is March 8 and another 25 bp cut to 2.75% is likely.