Energy Sector Predictions For 2018

Look for U.S. oil production to reach a new record high in 2018. Also look for the patience of Tesla investors to be tested this year.

The energy recovery is well underway. President Trump continues to roll back regulations aimed at boosting oil production and saving the coal industry.

How might this all play out in 2018?

Here are my predictions for some of the significant energy trends I expect this year.

1. The U.S. will break its all-time oil production record

In October and November of 1970, monthly U.S. oil production just breached 10 million barrels per day (BPD) for the first time. In the 47 years since monthly production has never again reached that level.

In fact, just before the shale oil boom, U.S. oil production had dropped below 5 million BPD. But by 2014 oil production had exceeded 9 million BPD, and was on a trajectory to exceed 10 million BPD in 2015. Then the bottom fell out of the oil market. Production declined. But over the past year, production has been on the way back up and is once more threatening that 10 million BPD record.

I think a new record is nearly a sure bet for 2018. I predict a new all-time monthly production record, probably in the first half of the year. I think it’s also likely that annual oil production in 2018 will beat the 1970 record of 9.637 million BPD.

2. Oil prices to reach $70/bbl

I alluded to this prediction last month, but after the recent price run-up, it seems less aggressive than it was then. Still, some pundits are suggesting that oil is now overvalued, and a pullback is inevitable. See here, or here for example.

But a few lonely voices have been forecasting $80/bbl oil by year-end. Indeed, if the crisis in Iran threatens the region’s oil production, $100/bbl isn’t out of the question this year.

I predicted $60/bbl for 2017, and it took until the last week of the year to reach that. There are a lot of headwinds for oil at this point. In particular, many oil producers are hedging at current prices, and there is a large backlog of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells. The latter can bring new oil production online quickly as oil prices rise.