A government shutdown was averted (for another week at least although it seems unlikely that a deal won’t be worked out). Trump’s tax reform plan didn’t generate much of a reaction from the markets although that’s not terribly surprising given that it was just a one page outline light on details.
Perhaps the biggest news over the past few weeks has been the strength of the earnings recovery. Thus far, Q1 earnings have risen more than 13% compared to Q1 last year while revenues are up roughly 7%. On top of that, 80% of earnings reports have been beats, the highest number we’ve seen from the S&P 500 in several years. I argued a couple of weeks that the next move up in stocks needed to be driven by earnings growth instead of multiple expansion. It looks so far like that’s exactly what we’re getting. Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), AMD (AMD), Merck (MRK), Tesla (TSLA) and BP (BP) are the biggest names reporting this week.
Lots of economic data ahead this week as well. The monthly unemployment report comes on Friday, ISM data gets released on Monday and Wednesday. Personal income, spending and consumption numbers come on Monday. Some minor downside surprises in this past week’s economic news. Consumer confidence ticked down slightly but is still near multi-year highs. Advance Q1 GDP rose just 0.7% vs. expectations of 1.1% growth.
The ETF market should be active again this week. Here are the four ETFs that I think could make significant moves this week.
Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF)
Growth has outperformed value over most time periods since the end of the financial crisis. With the earnings recovery firmly in place and double digit year-over-year growth expected to continue over the next several quarters, there’s no reason to think that growth won’t continue to outperform.
President Trump’s pro-growth agenda (depending on when, how or even if it will be implemented) should further support the growth over value argument.
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