EUR/USD Down But Not Out As Prices Approach Bullish Trend Support

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART

EUR/USD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

Technical Outlook: Euro turned just ahead of the key 61.8% retracement of the 2014 decline at 1.2598 with the pullback now eyeing near-term confluence support around the 1.23-handle. Note that daily momentum has broken back from overbought territory and is now testing a basic support trigger- a break below this threshold alongside a move sub-1.23 would suggest that a more significant near-term high is in place.

That said, look for interim resistance at the yearly high-day close at 1.2393-1.2409 with a break there needed to shift the near-term focus back toward the yearly highs at 1.2538 and the 1.2598 resistance target.

EUR/USD 240MIN PRICE CHART

EUR/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Notes: A closer look at price action sees prices trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly highs with the median-line converging on up-slope support around the 1.2297-1.2310 – Look for a reaction there.

Bottom line: Euro is heading into up-trend support near the 1.23-handle with our broader bullish invalidation level set to the 38.2% retracement which converges on a slope confluence around 1.2225. While the immediate risk is lower, from a trading standpoint, I’llfavor buying a dip into structural support or a breakout & retest of the upper parallel / 1.2409 resistance level.

EUR/USD IG CLIENT SENTIMENT

EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment

A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -2.02 (33.1% of traders are long) – bullishreading

Retail has remained net-long since Apr 18th; price has moved 16.8% higher since then

Long positions are 5.2% lower than yesterday and 17.0% lower from last week

Short positions are 9.5% lower than yesterday and 1.3% lower from last week

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Retail is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.