Inflation, the ECB’s “single needle in the compass”, or only mandate, has climbed up to 1.8%. This is not only stronger than economists had anticipated, but also matches the aim of the Bank: inflation at, or a bit below, 2%.
In the latest rate decision, Draghi dismissed the rise in inflation. He pointed to the fact that the rise in prices was totally expected given the bounce back in oil prices. The “transitory effect” has not reached core inflation, which stands at 0.9% also in January.
Will Draghi continue sticking to his dovish guns, talking about core inflation? Or will he be forced to discuss his mandate?
Other figures also provided reasons for optimism. growth came out at 0.5% q/q in Q4, better than projected and an acceleration from previous quarters in 2016. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.6%, also exceeding estimates, albeit still quite high.
EUR/USD slipping
EUR/USD is trading lower, at 1.0734, down some 50 pips. A quick look at other currency pairs shows far more stability. This is not a dollar correction but rather euro weakness.
Support awaits at 1.0710, followed by 1.0650. Resistance is at 1.0830 and 1.0870.
Will Draghi push the euro lower? Or are his dovish words already priced in? We will learn at 14:00 GMT, when he reads out his prepared statement. This is followed by a lengthy Q&A session.
And what about the dollar? Trump’s fiery first days in the White House ran into legal obstacles over the weekend, as the courts overturned his Muslim Ban. The ongoing focus on immigration and not on fiscal stimulus weighs on the greenback.
Here is the euro/dollar chart:
Leave A Comment