Preview:

On Thursday, the EUR/USD closed down. The pair is still in a sideways trend, trading within a 50 pip range from 1.0630 to 1.0680. Movement is limited but very impulsive. Market volatility increases while statements from central bank representatives are being made.

On Thursday, Mario Draghi said in a statement that there is currently no need for a revision of the ECB’s monetary policy. In this, he expressed the bank’s readiness to continue with their quantitative easing program. Sellers tried to use Draghi’s speech to bring the price down below 1.0630 but were met with a large volume of buy orders. By the time markets had opened in the US, the price had restored to 1.0676. By the day’s close, the Euro had lost all its gains.

Market expectations

Since trading has got underway in Asia, the rate has risen to 1.0660 as the US dollar is falling across the board following a military attack by the US on Syria. Pentagon chief, James Mattis, reportedly presented president Trump with incontrovertible evidence of Bashar al Assad’s guilt in using chemical weapons, collected from social media. Let’s wait and see how other countries will react to the USA’s actions.

Trader attention today is going to be focused on the US jobs report for March as well as any news from the meeting between the USA’s and China’s presidents.

The market is likely to remain volatile throughout the day. We’re expecting the Euro exchange rate to leave the 1.0630 – 1.0680 range.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 09:00 Germany: industrial production (Feb), trade balance s.a. (Feb);
  • 10:00 Switzerland: foreign currency reserves (Feb);
  • 10:30 UK: Halifax house prices (Mar);
  • 11:30 UK: manufacturing production (Feb), non-EU trade balance (Feb), industrial production (Feb), construction spending (Feb);
  • 12:00 UK: BoE governor Carney’s speech;
  • 15:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (3M) (Mar);
  • 15:30 Canada: net change in employment (Mar), unemployment rate (Mar);
  • 15:30 USA: average hourly earnings (Mar), non-farm payrolls (Mar), unemployment rate (Mar);
  • 17:00 Canada: Ivey PMI (Mar);
  • 17:00 USA: wholesale inventories (Feb);
  • 22:00 USA: consumer credit change (Feb).