EUR/USD: U3 MA Line Providing Resistance

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On Tuesday, November 14, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up at around 1.18, with an intraday range of 140 pips. The euro rose thanks to positive data from Germany and the Eurozone, growth on the euro crosses, and a decline in US 10Y bond yields. The dollar showed some mixed dynamics against the majors as there were a lot of important news releases.

It was surprising that volatility didn’t rise when the heads of central banks were giving their speeches at the conference in Frankfurt. They had a lot to say. However, given that the market didn’t react to their speeches, it’s as if no one said anything.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

10:00 Australia: RBA assistant governor Luci Ellis’ speech.

10:45 France: CPI (Oct).

11:00 USA: Fed’s Evans speech.

12:30 UK: claimant count change (Oct), ILO unemployment rate (Sep), average earnings (Sep).

13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Sep), ECB’s Praet speech.

13:00 UK: MPC member Haldane’s speech.

16:00 UK: MPC member Broadbent’s speech.

16:30 USA: CPI (Oct), NY Empire State manufacturing index (Nov), retail sales (Oct).

18:30 USA: EIA crude oil stocks change (10 Nov).

Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

After the 39-hour flat, buyers broke up the upper boundary of the A-A channel. I’m convinced that as the price crossed 1.1690, protective stop levels kicked in on traders’ short positions, which gave the price an additional bullish impulse.

The euro rate continued upwards from the LB balance line with the help of the euro crosses. From a technical point of view, there’s no confusion surrounding the euro/dollar pair. The price broke through the resistance and continued upwards, while European data attracted more buyers for the euro. It’s good that I noticed that the head and shoulders model had failed when I did.

The euro’s rise was halted by the U3 MA line (SMA with a period of 55 and a 1% diversion). This is a strong resistance. If buyers can’t keep up their momentum, the price will correct to the LB balance line, which currently runs through 1.1708.