Euro Crushed By Draghi’s Latest “Whatever It Takes” Moment; Fed Speaker Barrage On Deck

It was a seesaw day for Chinese stocks which started off on the wrong foot despite an Australian jobs number that was so good even the Australian media and economists aren’t buying it, perhaps aided by a Chinese new loans number that missed badly (new loans of CNY514Bn, Exp. 800Bn, aggregate financing CNY477Bn, Exp. CNY1.05Tr) and suggests the recent surge in credit creation may be tapering, however the afternoon session once again saw the arrival of the National Team with stocks recovering all losses before closing 0.48% in the red.

The intervention did not help commodities, however, as Shanghai steel futures fell more than 1% to another record low pressured by shrinking demand in top consumer China that has dented appetite for raw material iron ore. With falling prices seen forcing more Chinese steel mills to either cut output or close, demand from the biggest iron ore buyer is at risk, keeping ore prices lower for longer as top suppliers fight for more market share. Copper prices also continued their slide following a note from Goldman overnight predicting even more downside for the “Doctor” which in turn has pushed shares of Glencore back under 100p again.

But the biggest event overnight came from Europe, where Draghi managed to once again jawbone the Euro lower by ober 50 pips when he told European lawmakers in a prepared testimony that downside economic risks are “clearly visible,” repeating his October press conference statement, adding that the ECB will reexamine degree of accommodation in December as “inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened.”

And the statement that crushed the Euro: “If we were to conclude that our medium-term price stability objective is at risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained.” I.e., another “whatever it takes” moment.

The immediate result:

Another immediate result:

This means that even if Draghi cuts to -0.30%, 2 Year bonds will still be below the yield floor and thus not eligible for purchases, which will then force the ECB to cut even more sending yields even more negative and so on in a cat and mouse game of twilight zone monetarism.

What is perhaps more disturbing is that despite the aggressive jawboning by Draghi, while the Euro obediently tumbled, neither European stocks nor US futures rebounded and the latest market snapshot can be seen below:

One reason for the market’s lack of euphoria is that today we get another surge in Fed speakers later today, which means the risk of being caught offside to some ridiculous algo momentum ignition is very high, and why liquidity will be lower than usual. Specifically, speaking today we have Janet Yellen, No.2, Stanley Fischer, and four other Fed stooges. Look for much more December rate hike jawboning; the question is whether it will be hedged with talk focusing on the latest swoon in stocks and the resumed collapse in oil prices.

The speaker calendar:

Another catalyst that may have prevent a rebound in Europe (and US) were earnings by enginemaking giant Rolls Royce whose shares sank the most in 15 years after a stark profit warning, which tumbled by 20%. Some £2 billion ($3 billion) of market value disappeared after the company said 2016 earnings will be hurt from declining demand for business jet engines and lucrative maintenance services on bigger turbines. This year’s profit will also be at the lower end of the forecast range. New CEO Warren East will unveil plans to reorganize the company on Nov.24. Shares have plummeted 37 percent in 2015, on track for the worst annual performance in seven years.

Back to the overnight markets, where in Asia stocks traded mixed, following the tepid lead from its US counterparts. ASX 200 (+0.5%) pared initial energy inspired losses after the strong Australian jobs report signalling an improvement in the economy, while the Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) oscillated between gains and losses. Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) plunged the most in a week led by tech names with growing concerns that the recent 25% bounce back from the August low has been overdone amid a raft of weak data from the nation. JGBs rose 12 ticks amid light volumes, subsequently shrugging the relatively lacklustre 30-yr auction.

Notable was China’s monetary data which came decidedly mixed. As Goldman summarizes, October M2 growth was above market expectations while loan and TSF growth were well below market expectations. However, the weakness in TSF came in more volatile components.