The EUR/USD found support at 1.1938 on Wednesday ahead of the key 1.1937 Fibo, 61.8% retrace of the 1.1555 to 1.2555 (November to February) rise and our EUR/USD long looks good. Our USD/JPY short is back in play after USD/JPY bulls were curtailed ahead of the 200-DMA.

This is how my trades look today:

EUR/USD

Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.1990

Target: 1.2250

Stop-loss: 1.1915

Recommended size: 2.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The EUR/USD found support at 1.1938 on Wednesday ahead of the key 1.1937 Fibo, 61.8% retrace of the 1.1555 to 1.2555 (November to February) rise, increasing the risk of a recovery. We opened a long position at 1.1990. Now we need a comeback above 1.2055 to confirm a trend reversal.

GBP/USD

Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: –

Target: –

Stop-loss: –

Recommended size: –

Short analysis: Although we see some signs of recovery, a counter-trend play would be risky. The BoE will meet next week and will probably leave interest rates unchanged and this event is still weighing on the market.

USD/JPY

Trading strategy: Short

Open: 109.25

Target: 110.35

Stop-loss: 107.00

Recommended size: 1.49 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: USD/JPY bulls have been curtailed ahead of the 200-DMA, which is currently at 110.22, increasing the risk of a reversal lower towards at least the 108.75 Fibo, 23.6% retrace of 104.56-110.05 (March to May) rise. This is especially the case as the 30-day upper bollinger-band also weighs at 110.19. Our short position is back in play. 

USD/CAD

Trading strategy: Short

Open: 1.2835

Target: 1.2400

Stop-loss: 1.2930

Recommended size: 1.93 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: The USD/CAD remains anchored near 1.2850, trades 1.2803-1.2883 range. Bulls need a close above 1.2900 to gain momentum, but we think this scenario is unlikely given USD sell-off after Fed’s statement. We stay short.

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