The unemployment rate will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this Friday, July 7th. Alongside unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings and Change in Nonfarm Payrolls will also be reported.

Estimize consensus:

Unemployment rate: 4.5%

Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 185K

We are predicting the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 4.5%. Some economists are claiming that the natural level of unemployment sits at 4.3% which would mean we are nearing full employment. However, full employment does not mean everyone is at a job they would prefer.

Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to come in at 185,000, which would be an increase of 47,000 compared to  last month. Based on data from Paychex, the top five states for small business job growth include Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Washington, and Virginia.

Average Hourly Earnings are predicted to have a slight increase (0.1 percentage points) to 0.3% from 0.2%. This increase could be from the tightening labor market as well as the increase in inflation. Analysts are hoping this increase in wages will have a  direct effect on the consumer discretionary sector.

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