The headlines for existing home sales say “the main issue continues to be a supply and affordability problem. Finding the right property at an affordable price is burdening many potential”. Our analysis of the unadjusted data shows that home sales did decline, and the rolling averages improved. Sales price rate of growth moderated.

Econintersect Analysis:

  • Unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 1.0 % month-over-month, up 6.4% year-over-year – sales growth rate trend improved using the 3 month moving average.
  • Unadjusted price rate of growth decelerated 2.3 % month-over-month, up 2.5 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend declined using the 3 month moving average.
  • The homes for sale inventory marginally grew this month, but remains historically low for February, and is down 1.1 % from inventory levels one year ago).

    • NAR reported:

  • Sales down 7.1 % month-over-month, up 2.2 % year-over-year.
  • Prices up 4.4 % year-over-year
  • The market expected annualized sales volumes of 5.200 to 5.550 million (consensus 5.305 million) vs the 5.08 million reported.

    • Unadjusted Year-over-Year Change in Existing Home Sales Volumes (blue line) – 3 Month Rolling Average (red line)

    z existing1.PNG

    The graph below presents unadjusted home sales volumes.

    Unadjusted Monthly Home Sales Volumes

    z existing2.PNG

    Here are the headline words from the NAR analysts:

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