The headlines say wholesale sales were up significantly month-over-month with inventory levels up remaining at levels associated with recessions. Our analysis showed that wholesale slowed this month.

Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales

The headlines said this sector improved this month. The growth this month was in machinery / durables with automotive / furniture decelerating. Overall, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they declined this month. There is an obvious growth trendline in wholesale – and even our analysis showing decline this month did not break this trendline.

Inventories remain at elevated levels.

To add to the confusion, year-over-year employment changes and sales growth do not match.

Note that this entire data series was revised as part of the annual adjustment.

Note that Econintersect analysis is based on the change from one year ago. Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 6.9 % month-over-month.
  • unadjusted sales year-over-year growth is up 5.3 % year-over-year (it was +11.8 % last month)
  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 4.5 % year-over-year
  • the 3 month rolling average of unadjusted sales was -0.5 % month-over-month, and up 7.1 % year-over-year.

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  • unadjusted inventories grew 3.3 % year-over-year up 1.1 % month-over-month), unadjusted inventory-to-sales ratio is 1.40 which historically is well above recessionary levels.

    • US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:

  • sales up; 0.6 % month-over-month, up 9.9 % year-over-year
  • inventories up 0.4 % month-over-month, inventory-to-sales ratios were 1.36 one year ago – and are now 1.28.
  • Expectations for inventory growth from Bloomberg / Econoday were between 0.2 % to 0.4 % (consensus +0.4 %)

     

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