February 2018 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Averages Improve

Hurricanes continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 227 K to 235 K (consensus 230,000), and the Department of Labor reported 222,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 228,250 (reported last week as 228,500) to 226,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. 

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

This marks 150 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 7.9 % lower (better than the 7.4 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 230,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 228,500 to 228,250. Claims taking procedures in Puerto Rico and in the Virgin Islands have still not returned to normal.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending February 10, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 10 was 1,875,000, a decrease of 73,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 6,000 from 1,942,000 to 1,948,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,926,500, a decrease of 16,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 1,941,250 to 1,942,750.