In an interview on FXStreet, I spoke about the diminishing odds for a rate hike in June, the frustrating EUR/USD range, the next moves in GBP/USD with respect to the odds of a Brexit, the upcoming moves of USD/JPY and more.
EURUSD remained practically unchanged after Non-Farm Payroll release. Where do you see the pair going on the near-term?
The Non-Farm Payrolls report provided a bit for everyone: a disappointing gain in jobs with an encouraging rise in wages. The fate of the US dollar had a “Turnaround Tuesday” after falling to the abyss. The dollar strength could continue in the short term but I doubt that the 1.1150 to 1.1616 will be broken soon.
Do you feel the lower-than-expected 160k jobs added close the door to a June rate hike from the Fed? Or does the positive weekly earnings data work in favor of it?
The Fed has shown us that it will take any excuse not to raise rates. The probability of a hike was low before the jobs report and only an overwhelmingly positive report would have raised the odds. While we do have quite a few important releases until the June meeting, the unconvincing data and the upcoming Brexit referendum serve as reasons for not raising the rates.
What’s your take on the cable? Will Brexit referendum bring the pair down to this year’s lows in the next month?
The fear of a British exit of the EU is already hurting the pound and the British economy. I think that unless opinion polls show a clear break to the Remain campaign in the upcoming weeks, there is downside pressure on cable and on sterling in general. The base case scenario is that the undecided will stick with “the devil they know” – stay in rather than go for the unknown, but we will know only on June 23rd and it will turn into a binary event: A vote to remain will boost the pound and a vote to leave will weigh on it very heavily.
Has USDJPY touched its lows at 105.52? What do you expect out of Kuroda?
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