First Quarter GDP Forecast 3.4 Percent: How Many Believe That?

Yesterday, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model upped its forecast for first quarter GDP from 2.3% to an impressive 3.4%.

Does anyone buy that forecast?

gdpnow-2017-02-01

Latest forecast: 3.4 percent — February 1, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 3.4 percent on February 1, up from 2.3 percent on January 30. After this morning’s ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecasts for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.8 percent and 4.7 percent to 8.0 percent, respectively.

Contributions

Item 30-Jan 1-Feb Change 1-PCE 2.08 2.62 0.54 …..2-PCE Goods 0.80 1.22 0.42 …..3-PCE Services 1.28 1.40 0.12 4-GPDI 0.32 0.88 0.56 …..5-Fixed Investment 0.75 1.28 0.52 ……….6-BFI 0.65 0.99 0.34 ……………7-Equipment 0.39 0.62 0.23 ……………8-Intellectual Property Products 0.23 0.24 0.00 ……………9-Structures 0.02 0.13 0.10 ……….10-Residential 0.11 0.29 0.18 11-Government 0.25 0.23 -0.02 …..12-Federal Govt 0.14 0.13 -0.01 …..13-&L 0.11 0.10 -0.01 14-Imports -0.89 -1.08 -0.19 …..15-Goods imports -0.76 -0.94 -0.18 …..16-Services imports -0.13 -0.14 -0.01 17-Exports 0.60 0.73 0.13 …..18-Goods exports 0.44 0.56 0.12 …..19-Services exports 0.16 0.17 0.01 Change in net exports -0.30 -0.35 -0.06 0.00 Change in inventory investment -0.44 -0.40 0.04 GDP Nowcast 2.34 3.38 1.03 Final Sales 2.78 3.78 0.99