FOMC Minutes Show Increasing Concern About Global Economy

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting detailed policy makers’ concerns about the risks to the U.S. economy, weighing in on the balance of risks of the recent tightening of global financial conditions which, according to them, could be a factor amplifying downside risks.

The release Wednesday of minutes pointed to a continued vibrant labor market despite turmoil in oil prices, China and the strong dollar and regardless of the projection last December that the Fed would raise interest rates four times this year, policy makers are now in doubt whether that will happen.

In a testimony in front of the Senate Committee in Washington last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested that the central bank could delay its plans for tighter policy while assessing how the economy reacts to current conditions.

Rate Hike Delays Possible

Market gyrations, however, may not be enough to push the Fed to reverse its course. According to Bank of America analysts, “While it has been a very rocky start to the new year, the Fed is a long way from capitulation.” They argue that the Fed’s most likely course of action is to simply delay further rate hikes rather than pivot back to monetary easing.

“While participants continued to expect that gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, they emphasized that the timing and pace of adjustments will depend on future economic and financial-market developments and their implications for the medium-term economic outlook,” the minutes said.

The notes also touched slightly on a matter that disturbed members of Congress during Yellen’s testimony last week–negative interest rates– with participants questioning “whether the band around the federal funds rate path should extend below zero.”