Force 3 Friday – Hurricane Harvey Throws Markets Into Turmoil

This is a huge storm.

We haven’t had a storm like this hit the land in over a decade and 2-3 FEET of rain are expected where Harvey hits land in the Gulf Basin. That will take many refiners off-line and Gasoline (/RB) and that’s already fantastic for our long Futures contracts, which we discussed during Wednesday’s Live Trading Webinar (Oil, /CL too) and /RB is already up over $2,000 per contract at $1.725 while Oil is, so far, struggling to retake $48 but that’s still good for $500 per contract every time we go from $47.50 (our long line) to $48.

Also, the Natural Gas (/NGZ7) long trade idea from Monday morning’s PSW Report at $3.07 already popped 0.10 for an $1,000 per contract gain – you’re welcome! And, by the way, at the time (Monday morning) we were shorting oil at $50 so the trip down to $47.50 was a $2,500 per contract winner until we called for the turn – aren’t Futures fun? Speaking of fun, the Russell Futures (/TF) are back to our shorting line at 1,377.50 and closing in on the other lines we discussed in Wednesday morning’s Report, which were:

As we expected, we did hit our strong bounce lines on on the Futures in yesterday’s action at Dow 21,800 (21,850), S&P 2,442.50 (2,450), Nasdaq 5,850 (5,870) but missed Russell 1,377.50 (1,372.50) so we shorted the Russell at the 1,370 line and, this morning, we’re already up $250 per contract at 1,365.  That’s exactly what we said we’d do – wait for the strong bounces and short them as they cross back under.  Now we’re waiting to see if the other indexes cross back under or if the RUT comes up to join them and confirms a more bullish rally.  Dow (/YM) 21,850 is my next favorite short. 

That is the Russell chart from Tuesday morning’s Report and, since then (when we were long), we have drifted back towards our shorting line at 1,377.50 but, to stay short, we need to see failure at Tuesday’s opening lines (Dow 21,850, S&P 2,450 & Nasdaq 5,870) and it’s tricky today as we have the hurricane boosting energy stocks (higher prices and repair work for OIH companies) but we think that will be temorary and, Monday morning’s PSW Report, Durable Goods is a total disaster, down 6.8% and ex-Transports were even worse as leading Economorons predicted a 0.5% increase and we’re actually down 0.1% so a 120% miss by the kind of people the Fed relies on to make decisions.