Seasonality is how a specific asset performs at certain times of the year. Here are the historical tendencies for forex pairs and commodities in the month of May. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. $AUDUSD $GBPUSD $USDJPY $EURUSD $SI_F
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, USDAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDEUR, USDGBP, USDJPY, USDMXN, USDNZD (some of these pairs are flipped relative to how they are typically quoted, be aware of that) for currencies and on light crude, natural gas, corn, gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and wheat for commodities. Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise in May more than 68% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy, but don’t meet that 68% threshold may also be discussed. Applicable ETFs are also mentioned.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders. If you are more interested in stocks, see 15 Strong Seasonality Stock Trades for May.
Forex Seasonality For May
All statistics are based on the last 19 years of data, unless stated otherwise.
USDGBP: The USD has risen against the GBP in 15 out of the last 19 years (79%). The average gain for the USD (or loss for the GBP)–including up and down years– is 0.7%. This would indicate the GBPUSD forex pair could be under downward pressure in May.
The British Pound ETF (FXB) has finished lower in 10 of the last 11 years (rising only 10% of the time), losing -0.8% on average.
USDAUD: The USD has risen against the AUD in 14 out of the last 19 years (74%). The average gain for the USD (or loss for the AUD) is 1.6%. This would indicate the AUDUSD forex pair could be under downward pressure in May.
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